counter-offer-risk.md

title: Counter-offer risk and benchmarks description: The evidence bar for each counter-offer risk tier, what each tier adds to the defence, and the sourced retention figures with their year and population.

Counter-offer risk and benchmarks

Rate on evidence, never on how keen the candidate sounded in the final round. One HIGH signal makes the tier HIGH.

Tier	Evidence bar (any one is enough for HIGH; two MEDIUM signals make HIGH)
LOW	Motive is about something the current employer cannot fix (the market, the product, the role does not exist there). Candidate has told their manager they are looking, or has already resigned. No mention of money as the reason.
MEDIUM	Motive is partly fixable by the current employer (title, scope, pay). Candidate is a top performer or the only person who does their job. Candidate has not resigned before from a role they liked.
HIGH	Motive is mainly money or title. Candidate has been counter-offered before and stayed. Candidate asks "what if they match it?" Their manager is a long-standing mentor or friend. They are owed a bonus or commission, or are near a deal close, project end or vesting cliff. They mention another process alongside yours.

All tiers

Reconfirm the reasons for leaving in the candidate's own words, quoted back to them.
Resignation rehearsal: who they will tell, what that person will offer, and the reply.
The retention figures below, shared as information, not as pressure.

MEDIUM adds

A named check-in on resignation day itself, after the conversation, not the next morning.
Signed or written acceptance of the terms before they resign.

HIGH adds

A deliberate touch with the future manager or team during notice, so the new employer is a relationship, not a document.
An earlier start date if the company can offer one.
Staged commitment moments across the notice period instead of one acceptance and silence.
One unscripted conversation where the hiring manager mostly listens. With a HIGH candidate, the thing that saves the hire is usually something they have not said yet.

These come from recruitment firms, which have an interest in the answer. Quote them with the source, year and country, and never round them up.

Figure	Source and population
34% of people who accepted a counter-offer had left within six months, and 74% within a year	Robert Half UK survey of 2,000 UK employees, December 2021
53% of people who received a counter-offer last time they had an outside offer accepted it	Same Robert Half UK survey, 2021
38% of employees who accepted a counter-offer left within six months, and a further 21% within a year	Robert Walters Japan salary survey, 1,423 employees, late 2023
Hiring managers report a mean tenure of 1.7 years after a counter-offer is accepted	Robert Half US survey of 5,500+ hiring decision makers, 2018
52% of Australian employees who accept a counter-offer leave within a year, 19% within six months	Robert Half Australia, survey of business leaders, 2021
85% of Australian hiring managers made counter-offers to staff with outside offers, and under half said the employee then stayed	Robert Half Australia, 500 hiring managers, reported June 2026

A widely shared claim that "80% of people who accept a counter-offer leave within six months" has no traceable original study. Do not use it.

No external study backs these. Replace them with your own numbers after a handful of offers.

The counter-offer usually lands within 72 hours of resignation, and the second, larger one inside the first week of notice. Schedule touches around both.
A candidate who says "I just want to give them the chance to respond" is HIGH, whatever else they said.
The hardest day is the day after resignation, not the day of it. That is when the manager has had a night to escalate.