Reference file

Diagnose a dead offer

diagnose-a-dead-offer.md

Diagnose a dead offer

Read this when a campaign is live and underperforming. Work the symptom, not the vibe. The most common error is rewriting copy when the offer or the market is the leak.

Locate the leak first

Where it dies Symptom Almost always
Nothing arrives Bounces high, opens implausibly low Infrastructure, not offer. Fix before judging anything else.
Read, no replies Delivery healthy, replies near zero The offer. Copy rewrites will not save it.
Replies, all negative "Not relevant", "wrong person" The segment. The offer may be fine for someone else.
Positive replies, no meetings Interest, empty calendar The ask, or a meeting demanded before value landed.
Meetings, no deals Calls happen, nothing closes Offer/price mismatch, or the offer attracted people who can't buy.

Then find the failing criterion

Match the reaction you're actually getting to the gate criterion behind it:

  • Silence → criteria 1, 3, or 8. There's nothing specific enough to want, or nothing at stake for you.
  • "Sounds interesting, send me info" → criterion 6. Proof was deferred, so they're asking for the belief you didn't supply.
  • "How much is it?" and then gone → criterion 2. No mechanism, so price has nothing to attach to and becomes the only variable.
  • "What's the catch?" with no reply to your answer → criterion 5. The generosity has no credible reason behind it.
  • "We already do this in-house" → criterion 2 again. The mechanism isn't distinguishable from what they already have.
  • Polite interest that never converts to a booking → criterion 4. You asked for the meeting before anything of value landed.

Change one thing

Change the offer, hold the list and copy constant, and re-run. Changing offer and segment together produces a result you can't attribute, and you'll carry the wrong lesson into the next campaign.

Give each variant enough volume to be readable before calling it. Killing an offer on a sample too small to distinguish from noise is how teams end up cycling through six good offers and concluding the channel is dead.

Know when it's the market

If three well-architected offers into the same segment all die, stop rewriting offers. You are selling to a market that doesn't have the problem urgently enough, can't pay for it, or can't be reached where you're reaching them. That's a targeting decision, not a copy decision, and no offer will fix it.