Signal → Trigger → Action: Forecast Breach Rules

On-demand reference for the revops-forecasting skill.

These connect forecasting to the Operating Cadence. When a forecast signal fires, the cadence ensures someone acts: not next quarter, but this week. These rules plug into the revenue dashboard and weekly/monthly rituals.

Forecast-Specific Breach Rules

Signal	Trigger Threshold	Action	Forum	Owner
Pipeline coverage drops below 3x	Coverage < 3x for current quarter target	Activate pipeline generation contingency within 5 business days. Pull forward next-quarter pipeline. Review outbound, partner, and marketing channels.	Weekly revenue dashboard	CRO + CMO
Commit coverage below 0.9x target	Commit < 90% of remaining quarter target	Inspect every Best Case deal for acceleration potential. Identify deals that can move to Commit with specific interventions.	Weekly Sales Pipeline Loop	VP Sales
Forecast accuracy trending >±20%	2 consecutive weeks where delta between forecast and pace exceeds 20%	Diagnose root cause: qualification drift, stage definition inconsistency, or rep sandbagging. Initiate A3 problem statement.	Weekly revenue dashboard	RevOps
Best Case slippage rate >40%	More than 40% of Best Case deals slip in any 4-week period	Tighten Best Case criteria. Review whether Best Case deals meet at least 3 of 5 Commit validation checkboxes. Likely a qualification problem.	Monthly Strategy Review	VP Sales + RevOps
Single rep variance >±30% for 2+ quarters	Individual rep forecast accuracy below ±30% consistently	Coaching intervention: is it optimism (always over), sandbagging (always under), or methodology gap? Different root causes, different fixes.	Manager 1:1	Frontline Manager
New pipeline creation below 80% of period target	Weekly pipeline creation pace tracking below 80% of what's needed	Gap alert to leadership. Diagnose: is it a generation problem (not enough activity) or a conversion problem (meetings happening but not converting)?	Weekly revenue dashboard	CMO + VP Sales
Weighted pipeline diverges from category forecast by >25%	Stage-weighted pipeline total differs from Commit + Best Case total by >25%	The two methods are disagreeing. Likely cause: stage inflation (deals in later stages that haven't earned it). Run stage audit on deals contributing to the gap.	Weekly Sales Pipeline Loop	RevOps

Forecast Breach Escalation Path

Not all breaches are equal. Use this escalation framework:

SEVERITY 1: INFORMATION (no action required yet)
  Coverage between 2.5-3x with >6 weeks left in quarter
  Single-week variance spike (noise, not signal)
  One rep's forecast off in isolation
  → Note in revenue dashboard. Monitor next week.

SEVERITY 2: WARNING (action required this week)
  Coverage below 3x with <6 weeks left
  Forecast accuracy trending >±15% for 2+ weeks
  Best Case slippage rate climbing
  → Assign investigation owner. Report back in next weekly ritual.

SEVERITY 3: BREACH (management intervention immediately)
  Coverage below 2.5x with <4 weeks left
  Commit coverage below 0.8x target
  Forecast accuracy >±25% for 3+ weeks
  → Escalate to CRO/CEO. Activate contingency playbook.
  → Consider: adjust expectations with board proactively.

SEVERITY 4: CRITICAL (executive action)
  Coverage below 2x with <3 weeks left
  Quarter is materially at risk (>20% miss projected)
  → Board-level communication required.
  → Shift focus to: protect what's in Commit, manage the miss, build next quarter.

Pipeline Generation Breach Rules

Forecasting doesn't just measure the current quarter; it must also monitor next quarter's pipeline health:

Signal	Trigger	Action	Timeline
Next quarter pipeline < 2x target at quarter midpoint	Projected coverage gap	Activate outbound blitz + partner channel activation + marketing campaign acceleration	Within 1 week
Pipeline creation rate declining month-over-month	2+ months of declining new pipeline	Diagnose: is inbound drying up, outbound slowing, or conversion dropping? Different roots, different fixes	Within 2 weeks
Pipeline age increasing (average days open rising)	Average deal age >1.5x segment benchmark for 2+ weeks	Pipeline deflation sprint: remove zombies to restore healthy metrics. See deal-velocity-engineer.	Within 1 week

Connecting Forecasting to the revenue dashboard

The forecast is not a spreadsheet; it's a tile in the revenue dashboard with bands and breach rules:

FORECAST TILE CONFIGURATION:

  Metric: Current quarter forecast vs. target
  Green band: Commit ≥ 90% of target AND coverage ≥ 3x
  Amber band: Commit 70-90% of target OR coverage 2.5-3x
  Red band: Commit < 70% of target OR coverage < 2.5x

  Secondary: Forecast accuracy trend (trailing 4-week average)
  Green: ±10%
  Amber: ±10-20%
  Red: ±20%+

  Leading indicator: Next quarter pipeline creation pace
  Green: On track for 3x+ coverage
  Amber: Tracking to 2-3x coverage
  Red: Tracking to <2x coverage

When a tile turns red, it surfaces in the Weekly revenue dashboard ritual and triggers the corresponding breach action from the table above. The goal is: no surprises at quarter end. Every miss should be visible 6+ weeks in advance.