planning-assumptions-template.md
Planning Assumptions Template
Single source of truth for all planning assumptions. Completed jointly by Revenue and Finance during Weeks 3-5 of the planning cycle.
Template: Annual Plan Assumptions
| Assumption Category | Assumption | Value | Owner | Data Source | Confidence | Comment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Retention | Gross Renewal Rate (GRR) | 95% | VP CS | Historical customer cohorts | HIGH | Prior 3-year average; Year 1 cohort 92%, Year 3+ 97% |
| Net Revenue Retention (NRR) | 108% | VP CS/Expansion | Expansion ARR vs renewal baseline | MEDIUM | Growth rate 12% assuming current expansion velocity | |
| New Business | AE Annual Quota | EUR 850K | VP Sales | Current rep attainment; ramp curves | HIGH | Validated against Ebsta median (EUR 800-900K mid-market) |
| New Hire Ramp (6-month) | 50-60% productivity | RevOps | Prior hiring cohort data | MEDIUM | Conservative; assumes 8-month full ramp | |
| Pipeline Fill Rate | 85% | RevOps | Current pipeline-to-capacity ratio | MEDIUM | Assumes SDR pipeline generation stays consistent | |
| Expansion | Expansion Rate (% ARR growth per customer) | 12% | VP CS | Historical expansion attach rates | MEDIUM | Driven by product adoption; assumes no major customer losses |
| Expansion Deal Size (average ACV uplift) | EUR 45K | VP CS | Current expansion bookings | MEDIUM | Mix of seat additions, feature upgrades, tier migrations | |
| Sales Cycle | Median Sales Cycle (New Business) | 75 days | RevOps | Current pipeline velocity | MEDIUM | Up from 60 days in prior year; market dynamics |
| Median Sales Cycle (Expansion) | 30 days | VP CS | Renewal/expansion velocity | HIGH | Shorter; existing customer trust, known budget | |
| Win Rate | New Business Win Rate | 19% | VP Sales | Current quarter close rate (pipeline-weighted) | MEDIUM | Ebsta 2026 median 19%; company performing at market |
| Expansion Win Rate | 65% | VP CS | Historical expansion bookings vs proposals | HIGH | Higher; existing customer relationships | |
| Customer Acquisition Cost | CAC Payback Period | 13 months | VP Marketing | Current acquisition spend vs first-year revenue | MEDIUM | Benchmark 15-16 months; company performing above median |
| Customer Acquisition Cost (per new logo) | EUR 12K | VP Marketing | S&M spend divided by new customer count | LOW | Highly variable by segment and motion | |
| Market & Pricing | Average New Customer ACV | EUR 45K (SMB), EUR 180K (MM), EUR 450K (ENT) | RevOps | Current customer bookings by segment | HIGH | Validated against prior 3 years; SMB weighted to self-serve |
| Price Increase (year-on-year) | 3% | VP Product/Finance | Planned price increase date Q2 2026 | MEDIUM | Assumes 70% customer retention at new price; risk if adoption lags | |
| Market Growth Rate (TAM) | 18% | Marketing | Analyst reports (Gartner TAM sizing) | LOW | Indicative; company pursuing 25% growth (outpacing market) | |
| Headcount & Capacity | Net New AE Hires | +2 FTE | VP Sales | Approved headcount plan | HIGH | Start dates: Feb (1), May (1); both ramp 6 months |
| Net New SDR Hires | +1 FTE | VP Sales | Approved headcount plan | HIGH | Start date: Jan; full productivity by month 4 | |
| Quota Attainment Target | 70% | RevOps | Planned rep distribution across 100-120% band | MEDIUM | Historical: 52% at quota (2024), 46% (2025); plan assumes improvement via enablement | |
| Rep Turnover | 10% annualized | VP Sales | Historical rep cohort data | MEDIUM | Budget for backfill hires; ramp lag reduces productivity | |
| Churn & Downgrades | Customer Churn (% ARR at risk) | 5% | VP CS | Renewal ARR minus at-risk list | MEDIUM | Ebsta 2026 mid-market: 1-3% monthly (12-36% annual); conservative practice-based |
| Downgrade Rate (contract value reduction) | 8% | VP CS | Historical downgrades vs renewal base | MEDIUM | Customers reducing seats or downgrading tiers mid-contract |
How to Complete This Template
- Revenue owner (VP Sales, VP CS) completes Weeks 3-4: Fill in values based on current pipeline, customer data, and team feedback.
- Finance reviews Week 4: Challenge low-confidence assumptions. Ask "What would need to change for this to miss?" Sensitivity analysis.
- Lock by Week 5: Assumptions are the contract. Any change mid-year requires documented approval and a reforecasting trigger.
Sensitivity Analysis Example
Using the template above, model three scenarios:
| Scenario | GRR | Expansion Rate | AE Quota | Win Rate | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base (Assumptions as above) | 95% | 12% | EUR 850K | 19% | EUR 8.2M |
| Conservative | 92% | 10% | EUR 750K | 17% | EUR 7.1M (13% miss) |
| Upside | 97% | 15% | EUR 900K | 21% | EUR 9.4M (15% outperformance) |
Finance uses this range to present board scenarios: base EUR 8.2M, downside EUR 7.1M, upside EUR 9.4M.
Last updated: 2026-07-15