Slippage Benchmarks (Ebsta/Pavilion 2025)

On-demand reference for the revops-forecasting skill.

MARKET SLIPPAGE RATES:
  36% of pipeline deals slip (improved from 44% prior year)
  Top performers are 217% less likely to experience material slippage
  76% of B-player deals lack critical milestone events (root cause of slippage)

SLIPPAGE DIAGNOSTIC:
  If slippage >40%: Process problem — stage exit criteria not enforced
  If slippage 30-40%: Normal range — focus on the deals that slip repeatedly
  If slippage <25%: Strong discipline — maintain and coach to sustain

WHAT PREDICTS SLIPPAGE:
  No critical event identified → 3x more likely to slip
  Single-threaded (one contact) → 2.5x more likely to slip
  No activity in 14+ days → deal is already dead, just not marked yet
  Close date unchanged for 3+ weeks → likely to slip

FORECASTING ADJUSTMENT:
  Apply slippage haircut to Best Case and Upside categories:
  Best Case adjusted = Best Case × (1 - your historical slip rate)
  If 36% of Best Case deals slip, multiply Best Case by 0.64 for realistic forecast