Pipeline Coverage Model (Thresholds & Contingency)

On-demand reference for the revops-forecasting skill.

Pipeline coverage is the ratio of total qualified pipeline to revenue target. It's the single most important leading indicator of whether you'll hit plan.

Pipeline Coverage = Total Active Pipeline Value ÷ Revenue Target

Minimum thresholds:
  3x  = baseline (you need 3x pipeline to close 1x revenue)
  3.5x = healthy
  4x+ = strong position

By category:
  Commit coverage:    0.9-1.1x target (if lower, you're at risk)
  Commit + Best Case: 1.5-2x target (enough to absorb slippage)
  Total pipeline:     3-4x target

Pipeline coverage by time remaining in period:

Start of quarter:  3-4x coverage
End of Month 1:    2.5-3x coverage
End of Month 2:    1.5-2x coverage (if below 1.5x, activate contingency)
Final 2 weeks:     Commit should cover 90%+ of target

When coverage is insufficient:

1. IMMEDIATE: Review Best Case deals — can any be accelerated to Commit?
2. SHORT-TERM: Pull forward next-quarter pipeline that's further along than expected
3. MEDIUM-TERM: Activate outbound blitz, marketing campaigns, partner channel
4. STRATEGIC: Adjust expectations with leadership — don't hide the gap