Diagnosing Forecast Misses

On-demand reference for the revops-forecasting skill.

The accuracy formula and benchmarks remain in the body. This file holds the diagnosis patterns for over-forecasting, under-forecasting, and high variance.

Consistent over-forecasting (closing less than predicted):

• Commit criteria too loose — reps putting Best Case deals in Commit
• Optimistic close dates — deals slipping to next period
• Insufficient qualification — deals in pipeline that shouldn't be
• Fix: Tighten Commit validation, implement deal review rigor

Consistent under-forecasting (closing more than predicted):

• Conservative culture — reps sandbagging to protect upside
• Expansion/upsell revenue not captured in pipeline
• Late-quarter inbound deals closing fast
• Fix: Incentivize accurate forecasting (not just attainment), capture all revenue sources

High variance (sometimes over, sometimes under):

• Insufficient deal volume for statistical prediction
• Lumpy deal sizes (one large deal swings everything)
• Inconsistent stage definitions — deals at "Proposal" mean different things to different reps
• Fix: Standardize stage definitions, increase pipeline volume, segment the forecast by deal size